feat(destinations): say what happened to a school's leavers, without republishing what DfE withheld #137

Merged
tudor merged 16 commits from feat/ks4-destinations into main 2026-08-30 20:49:15 +00:00
16 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
TudorandClaude Opus 5 cbe3a9a772 fix(destinations): the table said 'withheld' for a category that just doesn't apply
PR Checks / Frontend Typecheck + Tests (pull_request) Successful in 1m3s
PR Checks / Backend Smoke (pull_request) Successful in 8s
PR Checks / Build Backend (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 18s
PR Checks / Build Frontend (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 45s
PR Checks / Build Pipeline (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 1m14s
PR Checks / AI Code Review (Claude) (pull_request) Successful in 9s
The Share column keyed off `percentage === null`, which is true for
not_applicable as well as suppressed, so a destination that does not apply
to the school was labelled as one DfE withheld — while the Pupils column
in the same row rendered blank. Two columns, one row, disagreeing about
what the row was, and one of them making a claim about DfE that wasn't
true.

Both columns now derive from `status`, which is the distinction the mart,
the SQLAlchemy model and the serialiser all preserve deliberately:
published shows the figure, suppressed shows the withheld badge,
not_applicable shows an em-dash with a title saying so.

A published count with no published percentage now derives its share from
the cohort rather than falling through to a marker — both halves are
published, so nothing withheld is involved, and it is the same derivation
the bar widths already use.

Verified the new tests fail against the old logic before keeping them.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-30 21:48:39 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 2e9b5c83c5 fix(destinations): the masking pass can no longer exit unsafely
PR Checks / Frontend Typecheck + Tests (pull_request) Successful in 1m5s
PR Checks / Backend Smoke (pull_request) Successful in 9s
PR Checks / Build Backend (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 18s
PR Checks / Build Frontend (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 45s
PR Checks / Build Pipeline (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 1m16s
PR Checks / AI Code Review (Claude) (pull_request) Successful in 7m23s
Review found _mask_for_disclosure could return with its invariant broken
and say nothing. add_companion only ever withheld a *published* cell, so a
group with one suppressed category and every other one not_applicable —
routine in special schools and AP, where few categories apply — left the
loop with the lone suppressed cell still solvable. Reproduced on a
nine-pupil cohort: one hidden cell, cohort served, residual intact.

A disclosure-control pass that fails silently is worse than none, because
everything downstream trusts it. The loop now runs until the invariant
holds and escalates when no companion exists: the pupil group is dropped
from the payload, and an empty block serialises as None so the section is
absent rather than an empty shell. disclosure_invariant_holds() is exported
so tests assert it directly instead of re-deriving it, and an exhaustive
test sweeps all 81 suppression patterns of a four-category group.

Also fixes a test that set up six measures and checked one: the loop was
`for measure in ["school_sixth_form"]`. It now checks every measure, and
against the real invariant — none hidden, or at least two, rather than
"at least two", which the five published measures would have failed.

No regression on real data: 262 mainstream secondaries, all-pupils bar
still drawable on 94%, zero invariant violations, one disadvantaged group
dropped by the new escalation.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-30 21:35:03 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 102397fe69 fix(destinations): withhold at the API, not just in the chart
PR Checks / Frontend Typecheck + Tests (pull_request) Successful in 1m3s
PR Checks / Backend Smoke (pull_request) Successful in 9s
PR Checks / Build Backend (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 17s
PR Checks / Build Frontend (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 45s
PR Checks / Build Pipeline (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 1m14s
PR Checks / AI Code Review (Claude) (pull_request) Failing after 3m49s
Code review found the disclosure the whole design was meant to prevent.
R1 was written as a rendering rule and implemented as one: canRenderBar
stopped the bar being drawn, but GET /api/schools/{urn} still carried the
cohort and every published category. cohort - sum(published) returned
Whitley Bay's withheld further-education figure exactly — 18 pupils — to
any caller, and the RSC payload put it in the browser too.

app.py already stated the principle for admission_distance: this endpoint
is public and unauthenticated, so a field left in the payload is a
published field. The same reasoning applies here and did not get applied.

_mask_for_disclosure now closes both identities before serialisation —
categories sum to the cohort, and disadvantaged + other = all — by adding
secondary suppression until every row and column hides none or at least
two. My first attempt picked the smallest published cell as the companion
and a new test caught it choosing a zero, which protects nothing: the
residual still resolved to 18. The companion must carry pupils.

DfE's own aggregates are no longer served. Nothing rendered them, and one
spanning a single suppressed component names it.

Cost, measured over 262 mainstream secondaries: the all-pupils bar
survives on 94% rather than 100%. Zero lone-suppressed groups remain.

The e2e helper now tells a missing feature apart from missing data: it
fails if the API serves no destinations key at all, and skips if the key
is served but the annual DAG has not populated the marts. Failing on the
second would redden the staging gate for unrelated commits.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 19:58:02 +01:00
Tudor 68a192e430 Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into feat/ks4-destinations
PR Checks / Frontend Typecheck + Tests (pull_request) Successful in 1m3s
PR Checks / Backend Smoke (pull_request) Successful in 9s
PR Checks / Build Backend (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 16s
PR Checks / Build Frontend (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 45s
PR Checks / Build Pipeline (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 1m12s
PR Checks / AI Code Review (Claude) (pull_request) Failing after 4m4s
# Conflicts:
#	nextjs-app/__tests__/components/darkThemeSafety.test.ts
2026-08-28 18:45:27 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 ccd5074c90 test(e2e): destination journeys, including the no-bar rule
PR Checks / Frontend Typecheck + Tests (pull_request) Successful in 1m5s
PR Checks / Backend Smoke (pull_request) Successful in 9s
PR Checks / Build Backend (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 19s
PR Checks / Build Frontend (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 47s
PR Checks / Build Pipeline (no push) (pull_request) Successful in 1m16s
PR Checks / AI Code Review (Claude) (pull_request) Canceled after 1m10s
The helper throws rather than skipping when no school returns a
destinations block: a silent skip would let a real regression in the
sections ride along unnoticed, which is why the distance journeys were
changed the same way in 4f01fbd.

The disadvantaged journey computes the residual itself and asserts it
appears nowhere on the page — the one number the section must never state.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 16:16:25 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 2b4cf20d75 feat(destinations): the post-16 section, replacing the placeholder
The 'Post-16 destination data coming soon' note is deleted rather than
reworded: for a school with no sixth form the truthful statement is that
the question does not apply, and a placeholder there implies something is
missing. hasSixthForm and .sixthFormNote go with it — nothing else used them.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 16:15:21 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 cef2f77149 feat(destinations): the After Year 11 section
Question cards over one bar, with the cards acting as a lens on the bar
rather than a summary beside it — focusing a card dims everything it is
not made of, so the grouping we chose is inspectable rather than asserted.

The bar renders only when canRenderBar allows it. Where a category is
withheld the section says so and shows the table instead: the categories
sum to the cohort, so a bar drawn from the published segments leaves a
gap whose width is the withheld figure.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 16:14:13 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 68b6417149 feat(destinations): types and secondary section flags
Destinations are secondary-only, so the flags go on computeSecondaryFlags
rather than computeSchoolFlags. A phase counts as present only when some
pupil group carries categories — an empty block would otherwise open a nav
entry pointing at a section that never renders.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 16:11:37 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 c5719ef362 feat(destinations): serve destinations without closing the gaps
The serialiser carries status through and computes no totals of its own.
The only aggregates in the payload are ones DfE published itself; whether
showing one is safe depends on how many of its components are suppressed,
which the frontend decides.

The batch guard grows from six tables to eight.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 16:10:29 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 5e5b61987a feat(destinations): marts, with R3 masking applied at the boundary
Disadvantaged and other-pupils partition the whole and the all-pupils
figure is published, so publishing both halves recovers the suppressed
one. The mask is applied in the mart rather than the API so no consumer
added later can reach an unmasked combination.

The R1 test is a warn, not an error: DfE publishes the recoverable
combination and the mart's job is to carry it faithfully. Refusing to
close the gap is the API's job and the frontend's.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 16:08:20 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 c564566432 feat(destinations): staging models that keep 'withheld' distinct from 'absent'
safe_numeric maps every EES sentinel to NULL, which is right for attainment
and wrong here: one of those states has to print 'withheld' and the other
has to print nothing. A status column carries the difference.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 16:07:17 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 9188626051 feat(destinations): a tap that preserves the suppression sentinel
EES writes 'c' where a figure is withheld and the categories sum to the
cohort, so counts and percentages are emitted as text with the sentinel
intact. safe_numeric must never be pointed at them.

School rows and the England reference need different establishment pins:
at national level selective schools, studios and UTCs are separate
populations rather than labels, so leaving establishment open multiplies
30 rows into 190. Two queries per period, each keeping its own level.

Verified against the live API for 2022/23: 135,240 school records over
4,508 schools, exactly 30 each, no duplicate keys, 31,382 sentinels kept.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 16:06:37 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 7ae9ecdc36 feat(destinations): colour tokens, with the absence hatched not coloured
Activity not captured includes independent schools and moving abroad, so a
red segment would be a factual error. The hatch doubles as the secondary
encoding that rescues the neutral/blue pair, which separates at only dE 7.6
as flat fills.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 15:58:25 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 1980d79eee feat(destinations): the disclosure rules, as executable guards
The destination categories sum to the cohort and DfE publishes the cohort
total, so a lone suppressed cell is recoverable by subtraction. canAggregate,
canRenderPublishedAggregate and canRenderBar are what stop a consumer doing
that; toBarSegments throws rather than leaving a readable gap.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 15:57:46 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 9423f11567 docs(destinations): implementation plan, ten tasks
Ordered so the disclosure guards land first and everything downstream
consumes them: lib/destinations.ts, tokens, tap, staging, marts, API,
then the two sections and the journeys.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 15:56:36 +01:00
TudorandClaude Opus 5 576013d627 docs(destinations): design for KS4 and post-16 destination measures
The published files suppress individual cells, not whole cohorts, and the
categories sum to the cohort — so on 22% of mainstream secondaries the
withheld figure can be recovered by subtraction. Three disclosure rules
fall out of that, and the rest of the design is downstream of them.

Verified against the EES API rather than assumed: both datasets carry
school-level rows keyed by URN, with the disadvantage split and every
destination category the display needs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BvdDKvFFSZuMVDH5fEyTob
2026-08-28 15:28:09 +01:00