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docs(spec): re-verify the 2021/22 KS2 gap — expert finding refuted, footnote copy stands
The final review claimed DfE published school-level 2021/22 KS2 in Dec
2022. Re-verified: the GOV.UK announcement 'Primary school performance
tables: 2022' is CANCELLED ('will not be published in key stage 2
performance tables in academic year 2021/22'), and the EES 2021/22
release carries the same statement. No code change.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_0146VHeLAWjDVE2B5uU67jCB
2026-07-16 19:12:07 +01:00

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Compare Screen Redesign — Audit & Design

Date: 2026-07-11 Status: Draft — awaiting review Scope: /compare page (nextjs-app), /api/compare endpoint (backend)

1. Audit of the current screen

The current compare page (nextjs-app/components/ComparisonView.tsx) is a single-metric analyst tool: a <select> with ~40 KS2/GCSE metrics, one line chart over time, and a year-by-year table — all for the one selected metric. Observed on production with 3 primary schools:

What works

  • URL-shareable state (?urns=…&metric=…), native share sheet.
  • Phase tabs (primary/secondary) with sensible auto-detection.
  • Colour-coded school cards tied to chart series.
  • Metric descriptions from /api/metrics (single source of truth).

What doesn't

  1. Performance-only. The database already holds Ofsted inspections, admissions/oversubscription history, pupil characteristics (FSM/EAL), SEN, deprivation (IDACI), finance, capacity, faith, gender, trust — none of it reaches the compare screen. /api/compare returns only yearly_data + minimal school_info, while /api/schools/{urn} already returns all supplementary blocks.
  2. One metric at a time. A parent must know which of ~40 metrics matters, select each in turn, and hold results in their head. There is no side-by-side overview and no way to see two dimensions at once.
  3. No benchmarks. Numbers float without anchors: is 79% RWM good? The DB has official national averages (fact_ks2_national_averages) but the page never shows them.
  4. Domain jargon untranslated. "GPS Expected %", "Progress scores", "RWM Combined" assume DfE literacy. The only plain-English help is one note for progress scores.
  5. Raw numbers, no judgement support. 87.0% vs 92.0% vs 79.0% — the page never says "all three are well above the England average of 62%", which is the fact a parent actually needs.
  6. Bugs/paper cuts observed: the third school's series did not render on the production chart despite table data (worth a separate fix); the COVID gap (2018/19 → 2022/23) renders as equal spacing with no annotation; table shows "87.0%" precision that implies false accuracy.

2. Data inventory (available vs shown)

Domain Source table On detail page On compare
KS2 attainment/progress fact_ks2_performance yes yes (only thing shown)
National averages fact_ks2_national_averages partial no
Ofsted (latest + subgrades + report-card fields) fact_ofsted_inspection, dim_school yes no
Admissions & oversubscription (multi-year) fact_admissions yes no
Pupil characteristics (FSM, EAL, gender split) fact_pupil_characteristics yes no
Context (SEN, disadvantaged, stability, absence) fact_ks2_performance via metric picker buried in picker
Deprivation (IDACI) fact_deprivation yes no
Finance (per-pupil spend) fact_finance yes no
School facts (capacity, faith, ages, trust, nursery, gender) dim_school yes no
Location/distance dim_location map no

3. Design goals

  1. Answer parent questions, in order: Is it a good school (Ofsted)? Do children do well there (academics vs England)? Will my child get a place (admissions)? What is the school like (size, community, faith)?
  2. Every number gets an anchor — the England average, rendered as a consistent visual tick, plus a plain-English chip (Above / Close to / Below England average).
  3. Plain English first, jargon on demand. Labels are questions or sentences ("Children reaching the expected standard in reading, writing and maths"), codes/acronyms live in tooltips.
  4. Scan whole-picture first, drill down second. The single-metric trend explorer survives, demoted to an "Explore trends" section at the bottom rather than being the entire page.

4. Proposed structure

Columns = schools (max 4 visible on desktop, horizontal scroll beyond), rows = dimensions. Sticky compact school header keeps column identity while scrolling. Sections, in order:

  1. At a glance — verdict row per school: Ofsted badge, headline attainment vs England (dot strip + chip), oversubscription chip, size, distance (when a location is set).
  2. Ofsted inspection — must handle all three inspection regimes, which will coexist in comparisons for years:
    • Legacy graded (pre-Sept 2024): overall grade badge (Outstanding/Good/Requires improvement/Inadequate). Subgrades, where published, are rendered in the same area-by-rating chip list UX as report cards (one row per judgement area, rating as a chip) — one visual grammar for inspection detail across both regimes. Where our dataset has no subgrades for an inspection, say so honestly ("We don't hold area-by-area detail for this inspection") and point to the school's Ofsted page — never claim the inspection itself published no detail (graded inspections always have subgrades; if it was ungraded, the grade is carried forward and must be labelled as such).
    • Interim ungraded (Sept 2024 Nov 2025): parsed outcome ("remains Good") shown as the effective grade, marked as such.
    • Renewed framework report card (from Nov 2025): no overall grade exists. Render the report card as an area-by-rating list using Ofsted's 5-point scale (Exceptional / Strong standard / Expected standard / Attention needed / Urgent improvement) across the evaluation areas we model (rc_inclusion, rc_curriculum_teaching, rc_achievement, rc_attendance_behaviour, rc_personal_development, rc_leadership_governance, rc_early_years, rc_sixth_form) plus the separate safeguarding met/not-met flag. At-a-glance summary rule: never an unlabelled colour strip — summarise by counting areas per rating, best first ("5 areas Strong standard · 3 areas Expected standard"), and always name any area rated Attention needed or Urgent improvement explicitly (never fold problems into a count), plus "Safeguarding not met" whenever that flag is false. When everything is Expected standard or better, add the reassurance line "No areas need attention". When a comparison mixes regimes, show a one-line comparability note ("Ofsted changed how it reports in Nov 2025 — a report card and an older overall grade aren't directly comparable"). Never derive a fake overall grade from report-card areas.
  3. Academics (KS2) — one dot-strip row per headline measure (RWM expected, RWM higher, reading/writing/maths expected), each with the England-average tick and per-school dots; copy must say "tests and teacher assessments" (writing is TA, not a test). Progress scores translated to Above/Average/Below chips (CI-based) — but note KS2 progress measures ended with 2022/23 (no KS1 baseline afterwards) and return only when the reception-baseline cohort reaches Y6 (~2027/28), so progress chips apply to historical years in the trends explorer, not the headline view. Sparkline per school over the full published period, with an honest gap for the cancelled test years (2019/202020/21). Disadvantaged-pupils row under an "Equity" subheading, always with cohort size shown and DfE's full definition (FSM6 or looked-after/previously looked-after).
  4. Getting a place — oversubscription ratio as plain sentence ("184 applications for 80 places"), first-preference success %, trend vs last year, admissions policy.
  5. Who goes there — pupils on roll (vs capacity), boys/girls, FSM %, EAL %, SEN support %, faith, ages, nursery, trust. Post-v1: IDACI decile in words (needs a coverage check of fact_deprivation and the neighbourhood-not-school caveat, §8.7).
  6. Attendancepost-v1. The KS2 test-day absence fields are the only per-school absence data we hold; they're near-zero for most schools and easy to misread as general attendance. Ship only if a general-absence source lands.
  7. Explore trends (existing feature, collapsed) — metric picker + multi-year line chart + table, with an added England-average reference line and a COVID-gap annotation.

Metric exposure model (three tiers). No measure from the current page is lost; they surface at three levels of prominence:

  • Tier 1 — headline strips (always visible): RWM expected, reading/writing/maths expected, RWM higher standard.
  • Tier 2 — "More measures" expansion inside Academics: GPS and science expected % (science labelled teacher-assessed), average scaled scores (reading/maths/GPS, same dot-strip grammar showing the 100120 window of the 80120 scale, widening below 100, with the England tick) — one tap/click away, same visual language. Post-v1: gender split and absence (see §4.6).
  • Tier 3 — Explore trends: the full grouped catalogue (the current page's ~40 metrics, including equity and school-context measures, and the GCSE set for secondary phase) drives the year-by-year chart and table via the grouped metric picker. The tier assignment is a content decision per phase (secondary: Attainment 8, Progress 8 banding, grade 5+ English & maths as tier 1; EBacc and subject entries as tier 2).

Finance (per-pupil spend) is deliberately deferred: low parent value, risk of misreading. Revisit later.

Mobile (design target — mobile first): the desktop grid is the adaptation, not the other way round. On mobile the layout goes measure-first: each row is one measure with all schools listed under it (colour dot + short name + value + chip), so comparison never requires horizontal swiping between school cards. A sticky horizontal school-chip bar keeps identity and add/remove available while scrolling. Dot strips already read measure-first and carry over unchanged. The trend chart scrolls horizontally inside its container.

5. Data strategy — existing dataset only

Constraint (agreed 2026-07-11): use only data already in marts plus fields already present in the raw schema extracts we pull today. No new external sources.

Gaps in the mockup, resolved within this constraint:

Mockup element Resolution
England average for disadvantaged pupils Compute from our own data: stg_ees_ks2 already pivots the Disadvantaged breakdown per school; aggregate it (weighted by eligible pupils) into fact_ks2_national_averages or compute in the API. Label it "England average (state schools)".
England context for FSM / EAL / SEN chips Compute dataset-wide medians per phase, same pattern as /api/national-averages does for KS4.
"Much larger than average" size label Dataset median pupils-on-roll per phase.
Ofsted link We don't have deep links to the latest report, so always link to the school's Ofsted provider page, https://reports.ofsted.gov.uk/provider/21/{urn}, derived from URN (label it "the school's Ofsted page", not "the report").

Raw fields we already pull but don't store — promote to marts (one dbt/pipeline PR, no tap changes):

  • raw.ees_admissions: 2nd/3rd preference applications and offers, total-preference counts, cross-LA applications and offers → richer "Getting a place" (e.g. "offers reached 2nd-choice families", competition from outside the borough).
  • raw.ees_ks2_attainment: progress-measure confidence intervals and "working towards" % → lets the Above/Average/Below progress chips be statistically honest (band by CI overlap with 0, mirroring DfE methodology) instead of thresholding the point estimate.
  • raw.ees_ks4_performance / ees_ks4_info: progress8_banding (DfE's own plain-English "well above average … well below average" label — exactly the chip we want for secondary), EBacc entry/APS, grade-5+ English & maths, attainment8_diffn/progress8_diffn (disadvantage gaps) → the secondary-phase version of the Academics section.
  • raw.ees_census: young-carer % and the ethnicity breakdown → optional "Who goes there" enrichment; hold for a later iteration (presentation needs care), but the data requires no new extract.
  • raw.ofsted_inspections / tap-uk-ofsted: the rc_* report-card columns exist in staging/marts but are stubbed null — the tap has a TODO to map the report-card column names from the Ofsted MI file (same monthly extract we already download; inspections from Nov 2025 onward carry them). This is the one promotion that needs a small tap schema addition, and it's a prerequisite for the new-framework Ofsted display above.

Explicitly out (not in any current extract): school-level phonics, workforce/teacher data, per-school attendance beyond the KS2 test-day absence fields, Ofsted report-card documents themselves.

6. API changes

Extend GET /api/compare response per URN with the same supplementary blocks the detail endpoint already builds (get_supplementary_data): ofsted, census, admissions (+ admissions_history), deprivation, plus a top-level national_averages block for the latest year. Reuse the existing function; no new tables. Response stays backward-compatible (additive fields only). Add derived helper fields server-side or compute chips client-side from national_averages (client-side preferred — no schema churn).

7. Accessibility & comprehension devices

  • Verdict chips are text + colour + position (never colour alone).
  • Every acronym has a tooltip using existing MetricTooltip.
  • "How to read this" one-liner at the top of each section.
  • Chart palette: coral #e07256, teal #00949b, purple #8664c9 (validated: lightness band, chroma, CVD separation, contrast — the current --chart-2/-4 tokens fail chroma/contrast checks and should be nudged to these).
  • Numbers rounded to whole percents; England tick labelled on first use.

8. Expert-review requirements

An adversarial review by an education-data expert (full findings in 2026-07-11-compare-screen-expert-review.md) was applied to the mockups on 2026-07-12. The following are binding requirements for implementation, beyond what the mockups can show:

  1. Chart truthfulness: KS2 tests were cancelled 2019/202020/21 only. 2021/22 school-level figures are a permanent source gap — DfE stated it would not publish KS2 2021/22 in performance tables (verified 2026-07-12 against EES, the CSP download service, and DfE release notes; see # TASK 6 VERIFICATION in pipeline/scripts/diagnose_compare_gaps.py; re-verified 2026-07-16 after an expert-review challenge — the GOV.UK statistics announcement "Primary school performance tables: 2022" is marked CANCELLED with "will not be published in key stage 2 performance tables in academic year 2021/22", so the footnote's "DfE didn't publish" claim stands and must not be softened to "not in our dataset"). The chart's England- only 2021/22 point with broken school lines is therefore the correct permanent rendering; copy should say "DfE didn't publish school-level figures for 2021/22", not "not in our dataset yet". The 2015/16 national figure and the GPS/science/scaled-score England averages ARE loadable (mapping already correct; refreshed raw extract backfills them). Never render missing years as if time were continuous.
  2. Report-card summaries count graded areas only — safeguarding is a separate binary flag, never included in rating counts.
  3. Admissions: use the real preference-breakdown fields from raw.ees_admissions; never derive "lower-preference offers" as places first-preference offers. Frame total applications as "named on N forms" (any rank), lead with first-preference success, and standardise at-a-glance chips on that one metric. Explain the equal-preference rule; caveat offers vs final intake (waiting lists/appeals); condition "distance decides" on the school's actual oversubscription criteria where we have the admissions-policy field.
  4. Ofsted: overall grades ended September 2024 (report cards from November 2025); the interim regime must be renderable. Distinguish graded (s5) vs ungraded (s8) inspections and surface carried-forward grades as such; "we don't hold the detail" is a statement about our dataset, never about the inspection. Verify every scale/area label against Ofsted's final published toolkit before launch (e.g. "Needs attention" vs "Attention needed"; "Personal development and well-being" vs the identically-named legacy judgement). Check whether a school's latest inspection is merely its latest graded one. Confirm Early years provision subgrades flow through the pipeline for schools with nurseries.
  5. Subgroup honesty: disadvantaged-pupil percentages carry cohort sizes and follow the DfE suppression rule (≤5 pupils suppressed); state the rule verbatim in the footer.
  6. Benchmark provenance: official DfE figures and dataset-computed benchmarks must be labelled distinctly and consistently everywhere (a computed median is a "benchmark", not an "England average").
  7. Copy details: "Latest Ofsted inspection" (not "Ofsted rating"); "EHC plans"; SEN-support benchmark ≈14%; high SEN share may indicate resourced provision (say so neutrally); "at or above capacity" rather than "full" (capacity data is often stale); disambiguate Ofsted's "Expected standard" from the KS2 measure; give official terms ("first preference") alongside plain English. Writing has no "higher standard" — its TA outcome is "greater depth (GDS)"; never list writing under a higher-standard group. Science and writing are teacher-assessed and must be labelled as such (no KS2 science test since 2009). House style for benchmark provenance: official DfE figures say "England average"; computed figures say "state-school average (computed from our dataset)" — applied to every chip, tooltip, header note and section intro. EAL uses the census wording: first language known or believed to be other than English. If IDACI ships, caveat that it describes pupils' home neighbourhoods, not the school.

9. Rollout

  1. PR 1 (backend): extend /api/compare + tests.
  2. PR 2 (frontend): new compare layout behind the existing route; e2e journey updated in the same PR (promotion gate).
  3. Fix separately: missing third series on the current chart.

10. Open questions for review

  • Max schools: keep 10 in API but cap visible columns at 4 with scroll?
  • Should distance-from-home appear when the user searched by postcode (data exists via dim_location)?
  • Keep finance out of v1? (Recommended: yes, out.)