From af43b291e7a2a2fa36bca78c4252be0ec7e79b68 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Tudor <tudor@Tudors-MacBook-Pro.local>
Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2026 21:34:59 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] feat(pipeline): KS2 progress confidence intervals and writing
 working-towards

---
 .../transform/models/marts/_marts_schema.yml  |  7 +++++
 .../models/marts/fact_ks2_performance.sql     |  7 +++++
 .../transform/models/staging/stg_ees_ks2.sql  | 28 +++++++++++++++++++
 3 files changed, 42 insertions(+)

diff --git a/pipeline/transform/models/marts/_marts_schema.yml b/pipeline/transform/models/marts/_marts_schema.yml
index fd061be..3ab4044 100644
--- a/pipeline/transform/models/marts/_marts_schema.yml
+++ b/pipeline/transform/models/marts/_marts_schema.yml
@@ -86,6 +86,13 @@ models:
         tests: [not_null]
       - name: year
         tests: [not_null]
+      - name: reading_progress_lower_ci
+      - name: reading_progress_upper_ci
+      - name: writing_progress_lower_ci
+      - name: writing_progress_upper_ci
+      - name: writing_working_towards_pct
+      - name: maths_progress_lower_ci
+      - name: maths_progress_upper_ci
     tests:
       - unique:
           column_name: "urn || '-' || year"
diff --git a/pipeline/transform/models/marts/fact_ks2_performance.sql b/pipeline/transform/models/marts/fact_ks2_performance.sql
index 290e94f..f361e91 100644
--- a/pipeline/transform/models/marts/fact_ks2_performance.sql
+++ b/pipeline/transform/models/marts/fact_ks2_performance.sql
@@ -15,13 +15,20 @@ select
     reading_high_pct,
     reading_avg_score,
     reading_progress,
+    reading_progress_lower_ci,
+    reading_progress_upper_ci,
     writing_expected_pct,
     writing_high_pct,
     writing_progress,
+    writing_progress_lower_ci,
+    writing_progress_upper_ci,
+    writing_working_towards_pct,
     maths_expected_pct,
     maths_high_pct,
     maths_avg_score,
     maths_progress,
+    maths_progress_lower_ci,
+    maths_progress_upper_ci,
     gps_expected_pct,
     gps_high_pct,
     gps_avg_score,
diff --git a/pipeline/transform/models/staging/stg_ees_ks2.sql b/pipeline/transform/models/staging/stg_ees_ks2.sql
index 7a5f375..9f50b19 100644
--- a/pipeline/transform/models/staging/stg_ees_ks2.sql
+++ b/pipeline/transform/models/staging/stg_ees_ks2.sql
@@ -39,6 +39,12 @@ pivoted as (
         max(case when subject = 'Reading'
                   and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
             then {{ safe_numeric('progress_measure_score') }} end) as reading_progress,
+        max(case when subject = 'Reading'
+                  and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
+            then {{ safe_numeric('progress_measure_lower_conf_interval') }} end) as reading_progress_lower_ci,
+        max(case when subject = 'Reading'
+                  and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
+            then {{ safe_numeric('progress_measure_upper_conf_interval') }} end) as reading_progress_upper_ci,
         max(case when subject = 'Reading'
                   and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
             then {{ safe_numeric('absent_or_not_able_to_access_percent') }} end) as reading_absence_pct,
@@ -53,6 +59,15 @@ pivoted as (
         max(case when subject = 'Writing'
                   and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
             then {{ safe_numeric('progress_measure_score') }} end) as writing_progress,
+        max(case when subject = 'Writing'
+                  and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
+            then {{ safe_numeric('progress_measure_lower_conf_interval') }} end) as writing_progress_lower_ci,
+        max(case when subject = 'Writing'
+                  and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
+            then {{ safe_numeric('progress_measure_upper_conf_interval') }} end) as writing_progress_upper_ci,
+        max(case when subject = 'Writing'
+                  and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
+            then {{ safe_numeric('working_towards_expected_standard_pupil_percent') }} end) as writing_working_towards_pct,
         max(case when subject = 'Writing'
                   and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
             then {{ safe_numeric('absent_or_not_able_to_access_percent') }} end) as writing_absence_pct,
@@ -70,6 +85,12 @@ pivoted as (
         max(case when subject = 'Maths'
                   and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
             then {{ safe_numeric('progress_measure_score') }} end) as maths_progress,
+        max(case when subject = 'Maths'
+                  and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
+            then {{ safe_numeric('progress_measure_lower_conf_interval') }} end) as maths_progress_lower_ci,
+        max(case when subject = 'Maths'
+                  and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
+            then {{ safe_numeric('progress_measure_upper_conf_interval') }} end) as maths_progress_upper_ci,
         max(case when subject = 'Maths'
                   and breakdown_topic = 'All pupils' and breakdown = 'Total'
             then {{ safe_numeric('absent_or_not_able_to_access_percent') }} end) as maths_absence_pct,
@@ -143,13 +164,20 @@ select
     p.reading_high_pct,
     p.reading_avg_score,
     p.reading_progress,
+    p.reading_progress_lower_ci,
+    p.reading_progress_upper_ci,
     p.writing_expected_pct,
     p.writing_high_pct,
     p.writing_progress,
+    p.writing_progress_lower_ci,
+    p.writing_progress_upper_ci,
+    p.writing_working_towards_pct,
     p.maths_expected_pct,
     p.maths_high_pct,
     p.maths_avg_score,
     p.maths_progress,
+    p.maths_progress_lower_ci,
+    p.maths_progress_upper_ci,
     p.gps_expected_pct,
     p.gps_high_pct,
     p.gps_avg_score,